The Fan Voice: "Star Gazing"

By Live or Die Magic | February 8th, 2008


You guys remember how last Summer we were all lamenting the fact that we didn’t have a “go-to” scorer? We said we needed someone like Vince Carter to be able to get us the crucial basket in the fourth quarter of a close game. We said that this was what was missing from our team. It was the one area that needed to be addressed in free agency. It was the need that was supposedly assuaged by the signing of Rashard Lewis.

Well, as it turns out, we have had our go-to scorer on our roster for four seasons now. Ironically, he didn’t reveal himself until after we had spent 100 million on Rashard Lewis. In the last 4 weeks or so, Hedo Turkoglu has transformed, literally before our eyes, from a versatile, all-around offensive player, into a bonafide star, capable of carrying his team if called upon to do so.

Matt Guokas, in his color commentary of Magic game television broadcasts, has taken to calling him “Mr. 4th Quarter.” This has become a popular title lately. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and even Ben Gordon are all currently known as “Mr. Fourth Quarter” for their respective teams. With all due respect to those three great players, Turk has done some things lately for this team that makes him just as worthy of that moniker, at least in Magic-friendly territory. He is currently among the league leaders in 4th quarter scoring, averaging roughly 6 points in the final 12 minutes. Oh, here’s an interesting fact: while wearing a Magic uniform, Tracy McGrady’s average a then-record 8.6 points per 4th quarter during the 2002-03 season (The Elias Sports Bureau began keeping the statistic in 1997).

This season, Hedo Turkoglu has presented himself as a classic case of a player gaining confidence in his ability and having that increase confidence result in an exponential increase in his productivity on the court, especially at crunch time. Even though Turk didn’t make the all-star team this season (well, he still might), he has certainly played like one. He has won back-to-back Eastern Conference Player of the Week awards (a first for a Magic player) and has been on the tip of many tongues of late. In fact, you could argue that his not making the all-star team has created more buzz for him than if he had made it. He seems to be the consensus “biggest snub,” at least on the Eastern Conference side.

It is no coincidence that the Magic’s emergence from “the annual January slide” began when Turkoglu took his game up a notch. It was 10 games ago, against the Portland Trailblazers, who came in to Orlando as the hottest team in the league. In that 10 game span, the Magic have gone 8-2, and Hedo has averaged 22.7 points, 6.2 assists, and 6.6 rebounds per game. His shooting has been a stellar 52% from the field, including an amazing 47% from 3-point land (why is this guy not in the 3 pt. shootout??).

What is surprising about his increased impact is that it hasn’t come with increased shots. In that 10 game span, Turkoglu took 152 shots from the field, for an average of 15.2 shots per game. His shot totals stayed consistent game-to-game as well, with a low of 13 and a high of 18. There was greater variation in the number of 3 point shots taken, with a low of 2 and a high of 8. Likewise, his free throw attempts fluctuated greatly. Twice in that 10 game span, he went to the line 12 times, but in four other games he went to line twice or less. This last statistic doesn’t really reflect Turkoglu’s aggressiveness because we all can see that he is just as likely to drive the lane for an easy lay-up as he is to camp-out around the arc. In fact, the games in which he shot more free throws were against physical teams with strong perimeter defense like Detroit and Boston. The games in which he had fewer attempts were against up-tempo offensive minded teams like Memphis.

What excites me about the upcoming playoffs is that we now have a player who should be able to not only keep us in a game, but help us get, and keep, a lead late in the fourth. We may get beat in a playoff game, but I just don’t see us getting blown out anymore.

This praise for Hedo Turkoglu is by no means a knock on Dwight Howard or Rashard Lewis. In fact, were it not for them, I’m not sure we would be seeing Turk becoming a star player. Dwight’s ability to secure the paint on defense while also becoming a greater focus on defense, has allowed Turkoglu to completely open up his game. Rashard Lewis being positioned on the opposite side of the key from Turk has forced most opponents to split their focus up. Ultimately, Dwight IS the Magic. Within two more seasons, his game should be polished enough that he can be counted upon late in games to get a basket when needed, doubly so if his free throw shooting continues to improve. But in the playoffs, we will still need a player who can score from anywhere on the court, pretty much anytime he wants.

The real question is what are the Orlando Magic prepared to do about Hedo Turkoglu’s future with the team? In an online chat yesterday, ESPN.com’s Chad Ford suggested moving Turk to get a PF. It is ludicrous to even consider trading him. Gaining a power forward is important, but at the expense of Turkoglu? No way! If anything, the Magic should already begin discussing what it might take to keep Hedo in Magic pinstripes. He is signed through 2010, but that last year is a player option. Does anyone honestly think that Turk won’t opt out in the Summer of ‘09, especially if he is possibly coming off his first all-star season?

So, how do you explain to Turk’s agent that despite the fact that his client is performing better than Rashard Lewis, he can not be offered a contract like Rashard Lewis. Based on next year’s salary of 6.8 million, Turkoglu could receive a “max” contract similar to what Dwight Howard just signed (starting salary of 13 million for 5 years). Now, I’m not suggesting that Turkoglu is a max contract player. But would he be willing to settle for let’s say, 11 million a year, if by that point Rashard Lewis will be making nearly 19 million? How ironic is it that our highest paid player will not even be our 2nd leading scorer?

Having Dwight Howard as a teammate, combined with the fact that we should be primed for a deep run in a year or two, should definitely help our case. Hedo seems to really like it here, after all, it was his choice to join the Magic. He has developed a great relationship with Dwight off the court and a tremendous rapport with him on the court. But at some point, business and logic have to come into the equation. Hopefully, the answer will make sense.

For now, I will stop dwelling on a cloudy future and will instead continue to enjoy watching our new star come into his own.


This message was not subject of approval by the NBA or the Orlando Magic. The views expressed in this blog do not necessarily reflect the views of the Orlando Magic or the NBA, but solely the writer.

I love that last line ...

Good Words...LOD

Does someone actually pay you to write this drivel???

J/K LOD, nice blog. It will be interesting to see how Hedo develops, and if he can maintain this level of play through the playoffs.

Correct me if im wrong, but he was the one brightspot in our series with Detroit last season, right?

19 views and 2 replies?

Where are all my friends at??? (echo and JD excepted, of course!)

I still have faith that Lewis will be that true go to guy that we paid all this money too once we get him back into the 3 spot.

A lot of people have been talking trash about Rashard and his production, but everyone needs to realize the man is playing out of position and taking a beating at the defensive end. And on offense, he is being guarded by the other teams 4, making it more difficult to post up like he usually balls when playing against a smaller 3. Thus, he is hanging out at the 3 point line... And leading the league in 3's made.

I respect the hell out of Rashard for sacrificing some stats to do what is needed for this team. Mark my words, Rashard averages 25 pts a game next year, Hedo averages 18, and Dwight averages 23... That's a pretty killer threesome!

Is there a chance that Hedo is a one hit wonder? Personally I don't think so but I'm trying to think of a case where a player just blew up like this and continued on. Most of the time when you see this, it's due to a contract year but that doesn't apply here.

Should we sell high? It's crazy to ask because I really like Hedo and don't want to see him go anywhere but whether we like it or not, we have 2 starters at the 3, unless Hedo can make the change to the 2 we are going to be forced to play a lot of small ball.

I thinks it's a combo of Hedo's attitude and the respect Rashard is getting from the other team. Hedo owes Rashard a lot for doing what is best for the team.

For example, Rashard pulls the other teams 4 away from the basket due to the respect for Rashard's ability to hit the 3. That makes it a lot easier for Hedo to drive to the hoop, right?

quote:

Originally posted by WPMagic:
I thinks it's a combo of Hedo's attitude and the respect Rashard is getting from the other team. Hedo owes Rashard a lot for doing what is best for the team.

For example, Rashard pulls the other teams 4 away from the basket due to the respect for Rashard's ability to hit the 3. That makes it a lot easier for Hedo to drive to the hoop, right?

That probably doesn't hurt. Hedo is far more aggressive this year than any other, that is the biggest difference I see, he isn't settling for jumpers. I just hope that he doesn't relax and rest on his accomplishments this year.

Will bringing in a 4 that can hit the midrange shot give us a similar amount of space on the floor? I sure hope so because I want everyone back at their normal positions or in Hedo's case as close as possible at the 2.

quote:

Will bringing in a 4 that can hit the midrange shot give us a similar amount of space on the floor? I sure hope so because I want everyone back at their normal positions or in Hedo's case as close as possible at the 2.

That's a good question. Haslem sure won't spread the floor. I'm guessing if they bring someone like that in, or in the case Battie is back to full strength, Rashard will still play a decent amount at the 4, but whoever else is the bruiser will get about 25 to 30 min a game.

LOD, sorry it took me so long to comment. I usually dont venture down past Around the NBA/Global Game. Well done as usual!

nice read.. i personally don't care who will carry us in the playyoffs, i just want to see magic in ECF battling with boston/detroit..