The Fan Voice: "For Your Consideration: Jameer Nelson"

By Live or Die Magic | December 19th, 2008

“For Your Consideration: Jameer Nelson”

After wasting draft picks on “big” point guards such as Jerryl Sasser and Reece Gaines in the early part of the decade, it seemed to be a complete shift of strategy when the Orlando Magic moved up in the first round of the 2004 draft to select a short point guard, albeit one that was the college Player of the Year. In fact, Jameer Nelson often played off the ball at St. Joe’s, leaving Delonte West to handle much of the ball handling duties. The pick looked even more curious when just four days later, the Magic traded for starting point guard Steve Francis.

Nelson spent his early days with the Magic backing up Francis and showing just enough promise that it was easy to let the troublesome Francis go. Of course, at that same time, yet another trade brought to the Magic another would be starter at the point guard spot: Carlos Arroyo. Although technically Jameer Nelson was the starting point guard during Carlos Arroyo’s two-plus seasons with the team, it never really felt like Nelson had a firm grasp on the position. If it seems strange to read that, believe me, it seems strange to write it, especially considering that Nelson signed a 5 year, 33 million dollar contract extension while Arroyo was still on the roster. But Nelson only averaged 28 minutes a game during the season after which he signed that extension. Most starting point guards that sign lucrative extensions play a bit more than that!

But this season, with Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling gone, and a clear-cut back up on the team in Anthony Johnson, Nelson, in year five, finally has a firm grasp on the starting point guard job with the burgeoning Orlando Magic.

Those off season team retreats to his home town near Philadelphia that Nelson orchestrated and paid for no longer seem contrived or hollow. This is a player who now shares senior tenure on the team with Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu, and Tony Battie. Considering that any discussion of Hedo Turkoglu’s future with the team falls somewhere between the trade deadline and next offseason, then it is fare to say that the legitimacy of Nelson’s leadership functions on this team cannot be questioned. But we are talking about tenure, contracts, and offseason activities. For the real proof, you only need to look at what Jameer is doing on the court.

Let’s run through the laundry list of Jameer Nelson’s faults, as categorized by us Magic faithful during the last few seasons:

He is too short. Ok, perhaps he is too short, but with his speed and stocky build, he makes up for it in other ways.

He is a “shoot-first” point guard. Yes, Nelson definitely is offensive minded, and will never lead the league in assists. But, when you have a point guard shooting over 50% from the field, able to get his shot off from anywhere on the court, and capable of resembling Allen Iverson for spurts, wouldn’t you want him taking shots when he has them?

He cannot distribute the ball effectively. Even though Nelson may be more in the mold of “shoot first,” this doesn’t mean he can’t pass. In fact, he has had the ball in his hands more this season than in any other and is averaging over 5 assists per game for the second season in a row. Considering the amount of time that Nelson shares the court with Hedo Turkoglu, and the amount of time Turk spends initiating the offense, then it is reasonable to assume that in “what if” scenario in which Turk doesn’t share playmaking duties, at least half of Turk’s 4 assists per game could go to Nelson, pushing Nelson over the 7 assists per game threshold, which is where Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, and Chauncey Billups hang out. It is worth noting that all five of those players also average more minutes per game than Nelson and only Billups averages fewer turnovers.

He is injury-prone. Nelson has missed multiple games in each of his seasons with the Magic, including 5 games this season. However, considering that some of his missed time has been the result of Dwight Howard blows to the head (do you always hurt the point guard you love?), then I think Nelson deserves a mulligan. Also, I think that this Magic team is deep enough that it isn’t necessary for Nelson to play every single game during the regular season.

His defense is, well, offensive. The bad news is that Jameer Nelson will never be a dominant defensive point guard. The good news is that he doesn’t have to be. All Nelson has to do is make his man work a bit harder to get around him and then play solid team defense. Nelson is averaging a respectable 1.3 steals per game, a career high. He has also developed a knack for a timely double team of the big men being guarded by Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. Nelson took some heat for not calling out Steve Nash’s screen of Turkoglu that allowed Grant Hill to hit the winning basket last week, but let’s face it, Turkoglu had already allowed Hill to get the advantage on him and it likely wouldn’t have mattered anyway! I prefer to remember the way that Nelson pestered Tony Parker last night in the victory over the Spurs.


Here’s an example of Jameer Nelson’s progression: at the end of the 2nd quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers, he was fouled beyond the three-point line by Willie Green. Nelson quickly launched the ball towards the rim. He was awarded three free throws and subsequently hit all three. Making the three free throws was just bonus. The real treat was observing Nelson make a smart, heady play, instinctively going up for that shot when he saw the contact coming.

So, where am I going with all of this praise for Jameer Nelson? I’d like to present him to the Eastern Conference coaches for their consideration for inclusion in the 2009 All Star game. Think this is a stretch? It’s not. Let’s assume that based on current fan voting results that Allen Iverson and Dwyane Wade are the starters. This means that the coaches will be choosing at least one traditional point guard from the East. I submit that Jameer Nelson, when all factors are considered, has just as much a shot as any other point guard in the East. Let’s take a look at the evidence:

Nelson is averaging 16.3 points per game on 50% shooting from the field, 38% from the line, and a whopping 92% from the free throw line (this last statistic would place him in the top 10 league wide, but he doesn’t have the minimum FT attempts to qualify). He is averaging 1.3 steals and 3.4 rebounds. In addition, he is averaging over 4 points in the fourth quarter (just in case you missed his fourth quarter last night against the Spurs!).

Lately, he has elevated his game even higher. In December, Nelson is averaging 20 points per game on 54% shooting from the field and 54% from the arc! He is averaging over two steals per game and has increased his assists to nearly 6 per game. Nelson is on the rise and doesn’t seem to be peaking yet.

Nelson’s main competition in the East are as follows: Devin Harris of the Nets, Rajon Rondo of the Celtics, Mo Williams of the Cavaliers, Jose Calderon of the Raptors, Andre Miller of the 76ers, Chris Duhon of the Knicks, Derrick Rose of the Bulls, TJ Ford of the Pacers, Mike Bibby of the Hawks, and Raymond Felton of the Bobcats.

First off, let’s remember that the coaches like to reward successful teams even if the players being chosen have statistics that don’t quite compare to players on teams with a lower win total. This explains how the Pistons sent four of their starters to the all star game a couple of seasons ago. So, even though players like Raymond Felton, TJ Ford, Andre Miller, and Derrick Rose have comparable numbers to Nelson, the lack of team success will hurt those players and likely prevent the coaches from voting for them.

The coaches might have a slightly longer pause when considering Jose Calderon and Chris Duhon. Although neither of these players has the win totals or the scoring average that Nelson has, their lofty assists totals (9 per game for Calderon and 8.6 for Duhon) cannot easily be ignored. Still, in the end I think that Nelson would get the nod over either of these players because of the success of the Magic organization in comparison to the disappointment of the Raptors and the constant flux of the Knicks.

So that leaves Devin Harris of the Nets, Mo Williams of the Cavaliers, Rajon Rondo of the Celtics, and Mike Bibby of the Hawks. Bibby’s stats are nearly identical to Nelson’s. Nelson has a slightly higher shooting percentage and a slightly higher assist average (In fact, Bibby’s teammate Joe Johnson, a shooting guard, has better “point guard stats” than Bibby!). With stats being equal, I hope that the coaches would again look to win total as the deciding factor. Devin Harris has certainly made a splash with his scoring binge of late, and he leads Nelson in pretty much every category but shooting percentage. However, this is Harris’s breakout year, and as evidenced by Hedo Turkoglu missing last year, coaches seem to prefer to see if you can do it two years in a row before awarding you an all star nod. While Mo Williams’s stats and team success are certainly comparable to Nelson’s, I think the coaches might notice, like me, that Williams is not even the best point guard on his own team.

This brings us to Rajon Rondo. Of all the players that I’ve mentioned, I believe that Rondo has the best chance of getting the nod over Nelson. Scoring average and three point shooting are the only two major categories in which Nelson enjoys a clear advantage over Rondo. Rondo might also benefit from the historic run that the Celtics are on, which makes even Nelson’s Magic’s lofty 20-6 record pale in comparison. I could easily see Rondo benefitting from a groundswell of support for what the Celtics achieved last season and what they are doing now. Rondo could join the “Big Three” on the East’s roster as a recognition for the Celtics success just as much as for his stats. What might help Nelson is his current streak. If he maintains his current statistical pace from now through the end of January, and that coincides with a continuation of the Magic’s team success, it might be impossible for the East coaches to ignore Nelson’s candidacy.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that if Nelson makes it this season, he would be benefiting from playing in the East instead of the PG-heavy West. Also, even though there are many quality point guards in the East, their statistics seem to be down across the board. But it wouldn’t be fair to hold this against Nelson and if he does make it, I don’t think he will be thinking that he “lucked out.”

I have to admit, as a long-time Scott Skiles fan, it was strange during the first game of the season to see the Magic intro where Scott Skiles is shown giving direction to Jameer Nelson. I thought it seemed too soon to make such a bold comparison between the relative importance of these two point guards to their respective versions of the Orlando Magic. But Nelson has shown that he can be, and perhaps already is, just as important to this current Magic lineup as Scott Skiles was to those early Magic teams.

To conclude, I’d like to state that I am not saying that Nelson should definitely make the all-star team. Too many factors come into play for me to state that it would be a travesty if he doesn’t get selected. But what I hope I’ve shown is that Nelson, when compared to his PG peers in the East, is deserving of inclusion in the all-star game. Based on his play of late, I’d say it is a matter of when, not if, he gets selected.


This message was not subject of approval by the NBA or the Orlando Magic. The views expressed in this blog do not necessarily reflect the views of the Orlando Magic or the NBA, but solely the writer.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Live or Die Magic,

"My life will go on, this much I know. Cars and games will come and go. But never once will I forgetta, the way we danced, dear Dick Bavetta." - from "I Left My Heart In Dick Bavetta"

Great read, and altough I seriously doubt that he'll play in the All-Star game, he surely deserves to be considered for that spot.

Great read as always LOD! I think SVG has done a very good job undoing the damage by probably the worst PG coach in the NBA (Brian Hill).

It also helps him having a better defender in the backcourt with him at all times now (Pietrus, Lee and Bogans). But lets not fool ourselves here, if Jameer was in the West no one would be considering him or Rondo for the All-Star team. In the West you have Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, and Baron Davis.

But Jameer has proven himself to be a capable PG that is able to run this team and hold his own on most nights. With our front line, if our back court and bench can simply hold their own we will win on most nights.

thanks for the read. agreed, jameer probably won't get fan votes but the coaches traditional pg pick should be jameer. great presentation LOD.

The length of the material was kind of intimidating at first, but certainly a great read. I like Nelson and this was a fun read.

Jameer sure made a statement in last nights game that he deserves to be an All-Star.

I don't see how Jameer makes the game unless some guards decide to sit it out for injuries (like KG and Butler did last year). AI and Wade look likely to be voted in as starters even though neither are really PG's. With the wealth of prev. All-Star SG's in the East (Allen, Johnson, Hamilton, and Carter). I expect only one true PG to make this team and Devin Harris would have to get my vote.

Hopefully, the coaches will give Devin Harris Carter's usual spot on the roster since he is now the best player on their team and the Nets record does not justify two All-Star spots.

The Rondo talk is insane to me, he is a hell of a defender but a poor shooter who could not carry a club if he did not have three All-Stars on his roster.

Jameer on the other hand showed he could when Dwight was out on the Western swing.

To me the Eastern PG's should be considered in this order.

Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, D. Rose, Bibby, Calderon, Rondo.

The problem is that unless AI or Wade sit this game out. I expect only one true PG to be selected to the roster and he should be Devin Harris.

BTW, for you conspiracy "ESPN hates the Magic people". ESPN sortable stats oddly does not include Jameer in it's rankings. He should be third in Eastern PG scoring but is no where to found.

Eastern PG scoring

Jameer is certainly making a case for himself. The way he is playing against top competition is definitely going to grab the attention of the coaches when they select the reserves.

I have to agree with Bhnole that Jameer will most likely be left off the team. Devin Harris is really deserving this season. If he is left off it will be even more of a injustice then Turk's snub last year.

What will really annoy me is if Rondo gets selected ahead of both Harris and Jameer. That will be the ultimate sign that the allstar game is about name recognition over actual performance. I expect that from NBA homer fans but I expect more from the coaches.

One thing that needs to end is anyone that automatically dismisses Jameer as a potential allstar. He's clearly a top 10 point guard this year.

I think Jameer is starting to exhibit the abilities that Otis already saw in him.

I hope he doesn't get selected, and that fuels him to play with an even bigger chip on his shoulder.

I also hope Lewis gets selected, and hedo realizes that he had a great chance this year if he had played as good as last yaer.

Great blog LOD.

One question for you guys to think about... If Hedo gets off to a good start again this season, does Jameer step up like he has?

His ball handling is still a great concern for me. Hedo leads the teams in TO because he is on the ball so often, I'd say just as much as Jameer. So, by us running the offense through Hedo I'd say about 1/3 of the plays, it leads to more TO's and poor shots (Hedo is guaranteed 3 or 4 a game). If Jameer were a true distributor Hedo wouldn't have to be on the ball so much. But, really, honestly, I'm splitting hairs here. I've been a Jameer doubter over the years (not so much as to advocate Carlos starting) and he is proving he deserves the contract he's on.

We still need a 3rd PG though...

And to think you wrote this before the Lakers game.... Great timing !!!

Good blog, and a realistic view. Unless the Celtics stumble a bit before the All-Star game, which is highly unlikely, Jameer will have to use this as a snub for continued motivation.

quote:

Originally posted by bhnole:
Jameer sure made a statement in last nights game that he deserves to be an All-Star.

I don't see how Jameer makes the game unless some guards decide to sit it out for injuries (like KG and Butler did last year). AI and Wade look likely to be voted in as starters even though neither are really PG's. With the wealth of prev. All-Star SG's in the East (Allen, Johnson, Hamilton, and Carter). I expect only one true PG to make this team and Devin Harris would have to get my vote.

Hopefully, the coaches will give Devin Harris Carter's usual spot on the roster since he is now the best player on their team and the Nets record does not justify two All-Star spots.

The Rondo talk is insane to me, he is a hell of a defender but a poor shooter who could not carry a club if he did not have three All-Stars on his roster.

Jameer on the other hand showed he could when Dwight was out on the Western swing.

To me the Eastern PG's should be considered in this order.

Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, D. Rose, Bibby, Calderon, Rondo.

The problem is that unless AI or Wade sit this game out. I expect only one true PG to be selected to the roster and he should be Devin Harris.

BTW, for you conspiracy "ESPN hates the Magic people". ESPN sortable stats oddly does not include Jameer in it's rankings. He should be third in Eastern PG scoring but is no where to found.

Eastern PG scoring

when you click on overall instaed of just qualified it puts jameer into the list

Great job as always LOD.

Jameer definitely deserves to be placed into that same discussion as guys like Harris. I really do not believe for a second that Rondo deserves to be in the game but like you said might make it as a reward for the Celtics being so good this year.

All-star or not he is playing really well this year and I hope he is able to keep it going.

I think he will be a victim of playing in a small market...I think people for the most part, the fans, will ignore the guy completely. Then the coaches will give him some votes, but not enough, picking other Guards ahead of him, Rondo, Harris, Allen, etc, etc. There's too many guards that would be considered better or more elite than little Jameer.

I hope I am wrong, but the good thing is that it might make him play with an even bigger chip on his shoulder....

Very good read, dare I say this should be anyone's FAQ on Jameer Nelson.

quote:

Originally posted by Nathan Rule:

quote:

Originally posted by bhnole:
Jameer sure made a statement in last nights game that he deserves to be an All-Star.

I don't see how Jameer makes the game unless some guards decide to sit it out for injuries (like KG and Butler did last year). AI and Wade look likely to be voted in as starters even though neither are really PG's. With the wealth of prev. All-Star SG's in the East (Allen, Johnson, Hamilton, and Carter). I expect only one true PG to make this team and Devin Harris would have to get my vote.

Hopefully, the coaches will give Devin Harris Carter's usual spot on the roster since he is now the best player on their team and the Nets record does not justify two All-Star spots.

The Rondo talk is insane to me, he is a hell of a defender but a poor shooter who could not carry a club if he did not have three All-Stars on his roster.

Jameer on the other hand showed he could when Dwight was out on the Western swing.

To me the Eastern PG's should be considered in this order.

Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, D. Rose, Bibby, Calderon, Rondo.

The problem is that unless AI or Wade sit this game out. I expect only one true PG to be selected to the roster and he should be Devin Harris.

BTW, for you conspiracy "ESPN hates the Magic people". ESPN sortable stats oddly does not include Jameer in it's rankings. He should be third in Eastern PG scoring but is no where to found.

Eastern PG scoring

when you click on overall instaed of just qualified it puts jameer into the list

if you look deeper at points per 48 min you see something even better east PG per 48 min